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Intel’s 18A process yield has jumped to 85%. It has secured major orders from NVIDIA, AMD, Micron, OpenAI and other clients, marking a clear inflection point for its foundry business and posing tangible challenges to TSMC’s monopoly in advanced processes.
SEMI released its mid-year forecast, projecting global semiconductor equipment sales to reach USD 229.5 billion in 2028, representing five consecutive years of growth. ASML simultaneously raised its full-year gross margin and net profit guidance, and plans to ramp up low-NA EUV production capacity by 30% in 2027.
Powerchip Semiconductor raised its memory foundry quotations by 45% starting July, with the DRAM supply-demand imbalance set to persist into 2027. Times Electric has initiated price negotiations for power semiconductors, indicating price hikes spreading across the board from memory chips to power devices.
Sijia Photonics plans a private placement to raise RMB 2.8 billion for capacity expansion of high-speed AWG chips and optical interconnection components. Apple is exploring acquisitions of AI chip businesses to boost its in-house server chip development capabilities.
The A-share semiconductor sector suffered a sharp correction on July 15: the STAR 50 Index fell 4.3%, the Chip Industry Index dropped 5.4%, and the Semiconductor Equipment Index slid 6.3%. Memory chips, advanced packaging and semiconductor equipment sectors all saw broad declines, while ETF funds recorded net inflows against the market trend.
In-depth Analysis
Optical Communication & Optical Chips：Sijia Photonics (688313) announced after market close on July 15 that it plans to raise no more than RMB 2.8 billion via private placement, mainly for capacity expansion of high-speed AWG chips and optical interconnection components. This represents the largest secondary financing in the optical chip sector recently. Earlier on July 5, Innolux Optoelectronics refuted rumors of export restrictions on upstream light filter chips.
On the trading front, computing hardware sectors tumbled collectively on July 15, with PCB and semiconductor sectors leading the decline. Nevertheless, stocks with disclosed positive interim profit forecasts including Dongshan Precision, Shengyi Technology and TFME bucked the downward trend and rallied.
In terms of first-half earnings, Hengtong Optoelectronics projected an 87%–121% year-on-year profit surge driven by rising optical communication demand, while Yongding Co., Ltd. expected Q2 sequential profit growth of 114%–240% amid rising fiber shipment volumes and prices. The optical communication industrial chain remains broadly prosperous.
Advanced Packaging：Since ASE Group announced over 20% price hikes for CoWoS and FoCoS products on July 1, the advanced packaging sector staged a sharp rally before slumping sharply alongside the broader market on July 15, with JCET and Huatian Technology hitting the daily limit down.
That said, fundamental drivers remain intact: a roughly 10% supply shortfall persists for CoWoS products. Domestic capacity expansion projects are underway, including JCET’s RMB 7.8 billion packaging and testing plant in Lingang, Shanghai and Ningbo SMT’s RMB 10.3 billion Phase III IC packaging facility, pointing to a clear upward trend in back-end capital expenditure.
From a competitive landscape perspective, TSMC is accelerating the development of CoPoS glass substrate packaging to replace CoWoS. Samsung and Sumitomo Chemical jointly established Glassem to industrialize glass substrate technology, marking accelerated technological iteration within advanced packaging.
SiC & Third-Generation Semiconductors：No major industry updates emerged for this segment today. A notable recent development came from Times Electric (688187), which disclosed on an investor interaction platform on July 15 that surging prices of bulk metals and raw materials have disrupted the balanced supply-demand landscape across the power semiconductor industry. The firm has begun negotiating price adjustments for power semiconductor devices with its clients.
Though the announcement does not specifically target SiC products, the move by this leading domestic power semiconductor manufacturer signals that price hikes are spreading from small and mid-sized manufacturers to top IDM players, covering SiC-based devices as well. Charging module suppliers rolled out a collective 15% price increase in early July, while upstream SiC substrate and epitaxy manufacturers continue to face mounting cost pressures.
Memory & Computing Chips：Powerchip Semiconductor raised its memory foundry quotation by 45% starting July, the steepest single price hike seen recently. The company forecasts the DRAM supply shortage will last through 2027.
Beway Storage projected a 3,200%–3,422% year-on-year surge in H1 net profit, while Dapu Micro expects Q2 net profit to grow 124%–164% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting sustained earnings delivery among memory manufacturers.
On the supply side, Samsung Electronics is grappling with labor shortages and plans to outsource back-end design for Google’s TPU I/O chips to local Korean design service firms including AD Technology and Gaonchips, indicating that demand for AI chip design far outpaces the industrial chain’s capacity.
On US stock markets on July 15, SK Hynix’s share price dropped 6.66% and Micron fell 1.28%, extending a multi-day correction for memory stocks.
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials：SEMI released its Mid-Year Global Semiconductor Equipment Market Forecast Report on July 15, projecting total global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales to hit USD 165.9 billion in 2026 (up 23.2% year-on-year) and reach a record USD 229.5 billion in 2028, marking five consecutive years of growth.
ASML concurrently raised its full-year gross margin and net profit guidance, and plans to boost low-NA EUV production capacity by 30% in 2027.
Domestic developments include Jingce Electronics’ proposed acquisition of a 41.17% equity stake in Shanghai Jingce Semiconductor (trading to resume the next day). Jiangfeng Electronics expects H1 net profit growth of 90%–122%, fueled by robust shipments of its secondary growth driver: precision semiconductor components. Jiangsu Shenzhou Semiconductor Technology’s IPO application has entered the inquiry stage with the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
Policy & Macro Environment：India unveiled a new semiconductor manufacturing initiative worth 1.28 trillion rupees (approximately USD 13.3 billion), adding another large-scale national semiconductor strategy following similar schemes rolled out by the US, EU, Japan and South Korea.
The entire A-share semiconductor sector suffered a deep correction on July 15; the STAR 50 Index fell 4.3%, with memory chips, advanced packaging and semiconductor equipment as the worst performers. However, E Fund’s Semiconductor Equipment ETF recorded net subscriptions exceeding 500 million shares that day, signaling prominent bargain-hunting inflows.
Across US equities, the three major stock indexes closed higher on July 15. BlackRock attracted nearly USD 200 billion in net inflows during Q2, pushing its total assets under management above USD 15 trillion for the first time, reflecting solid market risk appetite.
Daily Investment Tips
1. Watch industrial chain signals from Intel’s 18A yield breakthrough. With an 85% yield hitting the mass production threshold, client adoption by NVIDIA, AMD, Micron and OpenAI signals an inflection point for its foundry business. TSMC has rolled out 5%–10% price hikes for its 3/5/7nm processes. However, smooth mass production of Intel’s 18A node may trigger structural shifts in the foundry landscape as early as 2027. Investors should monitor the risk of TSMC’s client diversion over the medium to long term.
2. Watch out for earnings divergence amid the short-term A-share semiconductor correction. The sector slumped broadly on July 15, yet firms with positive interim profit forecasts (e.g., Dongshan Precision, Shengyi Technology) demonstrated strong resilience. The upcoming intensive interim report release period (covering Longsys, Jiangfeng Electronics, Biwin Storage and others) will serve as a critical window to verify the logic of "price hikes translating into earnings growth". Memory and optical communication segments boast the highest certainty of profit realization, followed by semiconductor equipment and materials.
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