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Omdia has sharply revised up its forecast for 2026 global semiconductor market growth to 94.1%. Memory chips are set to account for half of total semiconductor industry revenue for the first time, while capacity bottlenecks for HBM, advanced packaging and advanced process nodes will persist through at least 2027.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index opened lower and rebounded on August 3, with stark divergence between AI hardware suppliers and cloud giants. NVIDIA, Micron and SK Hynix faced downward pressure, whereas Amazon, Microsoft and Google outperformed the market. Investors have turned cautious ahead of the Flash Memory Summit (FMS) and a packed earnings week.
TSMC will hit its target monthly output of 180,000 3nm wafers early in Q4, pulling the timeline forward; monthly 2nm production capacity will approach 100,000 wafers by year-end, with capacity expansion for advanced nodes advancing above expectations. On the same day, A-share semiconductor stocks suffered a deep correction, yet the semiconductor equipment ETF attracted net subscriptions of over 700 million units against the market trend.
FMS 2026 Flash Memory Summit kicks off today. Samsung EVP Lee Jin-yeol is expected to unveil technology roadmaps for next-generation HBM4E and V-NAND during his keynote address. Earnings releases from AMD, Sandisk and Western Digital are scheduled throughout this week.
In-depth Analysis
Optical Communication & Optical Chips：No major industry updates today. The optical communications sub-sector staged a partial rally during the August 3 A-share trading session: MINGPU MAGNETICS hit the daily 10% upside limit, Linktel Technologies surged over 10%, and TFC Co., Ltd. rose more than 5%. This reflects selective contrarian allocation toward optical communications amid the broader market correction. During the FMS Summit, monitor whether Samsung and SK Hynix will disclose technical roadmaps related to optical interconnects and HBM matching solutions.
Advanced Packaging：No major updates today. Omdia’s latest report reaffirms that capacity bottlenecks for advanced packaging will persist through at least 2027, aligning with TSMC’s continuous ramp-up of CoWoS and SoIC capacity. Following ASE’s price hike of over 20% in early July, tight supply-demand fundamentals for advanced packaging remain unchanged. Domestic players including JCET and Ningsia Microelectronics keep expanding production capacity.
SiC & Third-Generation Semiconductors：No major updates today. The patent litigation filed by Wolfspeed against Navitas Semiconductor covering full GaN and SiC product lines is still unfolding. Bosch’s USD 2 billion SiC manufacturing plant in the U.S. launched trial production in July. Domestically, BASIC Semiconductor finalized a RMB 193.3 million EPC contract for its SiC module packaging production line at the end of July.
Memory & Computing Chips：Omdia’s latest forecast lifts the growth rate of 2026 global semiconductor market revenue to 94.1%, primarily driven by explosive growth in DRAM and NAND. Memory chips are projected to capture more than 50% of total semiconductor industry revenue. The FMS 2026 Flash Memory Summit kicks off in the U.S. today with full attendance from Samsung, SK Hynix, Kioxia, Micron and other leading memory vendors. Samsung EVP Lee Jin-yeol will deliver a keynote speech, where the technical specifications of next-generation HBM4E and the V-NAND roadmap are expected to be unveiled. Sandisk and Western Digital will release after-hours earnings this week, serving as a critical test for the sustainability of the memory supercycle. TSMC’s target monthly output of 180,000 3nm wafers is projected to be achieved early in Q4, ahead of the original year-end timeline. Orders for the 2nm process are heating up rapidly, with monthly shipments expected to approach 100,000 wafers by year-end. The pace of advanced node capacity expansion exceeds prior market expectations.
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials：A senior executive from Zeiss Semiconductor Manufacturing Technology, a core supplier of ASML, stated explicitly that the firm is “confident to meet surging demand”. It has launched headquarters expansion and new factory construction projects, advancing in tandem with ASML’s July announcement of a substantial ramp-up in EUV output capacity. TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to USD 60–64 billion, partially due to rising procurement costs from semiconductor equipment price hikes. The industry thesis of simultaneous volume and price growth for semiconductor equipment remains intact.
Policy & Macro Environment：Per CME FedWatch, the market probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September has climbed to 67.2%. Expectations of marginal tightening in macro liquidity continue to weigh on high-valuation tech stocks. JPMorgan strategists noted in a recent report that the AI sector is unlikely to act as the primary driver of market returns in H2, yet semiconductor stocks are approaching oversold territory while earnings-per-share momentum stays positive. For A-shares, the semiconductor sector underwent another deep correction on August 3, with major capital recording a net outflow exceeding RMB 21.8 billion across the electronics sector. Nevertheless, the E-Fund Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159558) drew a single-day net subscription of 744 million units against the market trend, signaling sustained bargain-hunting inflows targeting upstream equipment amid pullbacks.
Daily Investment Tips
1. Dual Catalysts: FMS Summit & Memory Earnings Week: Earnings releases from Sandisk and Western Digital this week will directly verify the magnitude and sustainability of earnings delivery brought by DRAM and NAND price hikes. If corporate guidance falls short of market expectations, it may intensify recent profit-taking pressure on memory stocks; conversely, better-than-expected results could fuel a sharp rebound after deep declines. Track the HBM4E roadmap Samsung will unveil on the opening day of FMS, as it shapes market expectations for compatibility with NVIDIA’s next-generation platforms.
2. Sharp Divergence Between AI Hardware and Cloud Names Deserves Caution:U.S. equities saw stark performance decoupling on August 3: cloud providers gained (Amazon +2.72%, Microsoft +2.68%, Google +2.41%), while AI hardware stocks slumped (ARM -5.56%, Micron -4.89%, SK Hynix -3.88%). This divergence signals the market is reassessing pricing power and profit distribution across all links of the AI industrial chain. The equipment segment enjoys higher certainty from expanding capital expenditure, while chip stocks face notable risks of valuation digestion.
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