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Samsung’s 2nm yield has improved from roughly 20% in H2 2025 to 50%–60%. It has restarted 2nm foundry negotiations with Qualcomm, potentially creating a dual-supplier setup of “Samsung + TSMC”. TSMC plans to raise monthly 2nm capacity to 60,000 wafers in Q4. Apple has secured more than half of the initial capacity for iPhone 18 and M6 chips, with its N2 yield standing at approximately 70%.
Shanghai Jiao Tong University has achieved a breakthrough in micro-transfer printed heterogeneously integrated lithium tantalate‑silicon nitride modulators (average insertion loss ~0.8 dB, electro‑optical bandwidth ~110 GHz, 125 GBd PAM8 hitting 375 Gbps, and a new record of 148 Gbps for D-band photonic wireless). The National University of Defense Technology realized long-duration full locking of low-repetition-rate silicon nitride microresonator on-chip optical combs under complex environments, accelerating domestic substitution of core optical interconnection components.
China Mobile Cloud launched a heterogeneous hybrid inference system combining “neuromorphic chips + domestic GPUs”, benchmarking NVIDIA Vera Rubin and Groq. In DeepSeek V4 Flash inference workloads, the system delivers over 100% performance improvement while cutting operating costs by more than 40%.
Per Jiwei Insights: ChangXin Memory Technologies filed a lawsuit against the US Department of Defense over inclusion on the Chinese Military Company List (1260H), requesting removal from the list. Geopolitical compliance risks for the leading memory player have become explicit.
The MIIT issued the Implementation Plan for the Special Action of “AI + Software”, promoting deep integration between industrial software such as EDA and AI. The RISC-V SPMP standard led by a team from Shanghai Jiao Tong University has been formally merged into the ISA specification.
In-depth Analysis
Optical Communications / Optical Chips: Beyond the above breakthroughs in modulators and on-chip optical combs, Professor Chen Yitong’s team at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, together with Academician Dai Qionghai, proposed a practical "technology roadmap" for optical computing, demonstrating a string of domestic breakthroughs in fundamental devices and architectures for optical interconnection and optical computing. On the industrial side, order guidance remains robust. Eoptolink stated that 800G modules are its main shipment volume, while 1.6T ramp-up will accelerate in H2. Beware of unsubstantiated optical-concept rumors: Ultrasound Electronics clarified that the news claiming its high-frequency boards have obtained NVIDIA certification is false. Its PCBs for 800G/1.6T applications are still under R&D and follow-up, with no large-scale supply yet.
Advanced Packaging & Testing：CITIC Securities’ latest strategy report identifies "advanced packaging" as a core beneficiary amid rising manufacturing complexity. Jiwei Consulting released the 2026 Advanced Packaging Industry Research Report, continuously tracking the evolution of 2.5D/3D and panel-level packaging. No new public updates on domestic substitution for ABF films / IC substrates, CBF/NBF/GBF build-up films today (prior briefings have covered Unimicron’s tight ABF capacity, Hongchang Electronics’ GBF project, and Tianyue Advanced’s SiC thermal interposer).
Storage & Compute Chips: Academician Hao Yue’s team at Xidian University published findings in Science. Using "nitrogen-vacancy topological stabilization", the team boosted the endurance of wurtzite ferroelectric (AlScN) memory to over 10 billion cycles, paving a path for next-generation high-endurance, low-power memory. On the computing side, Elon Musk expressed confidence that SpaceX will deploy NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72-like AI computers in space next year. Zhipu plans an H-share placement and issuance of RMB 20.14 billion zero-coupon convertible bonds, raising approximately HKD 39.27 billion in total for large model R&D and computing power deployment.
Equipment & Materials: MIIT’s Implementation Plan for the Special Action of “AI + Software” explicitly promotes deep integration of general industrial software including CAD/CAE/EDA with AI and explores new paths for industrial software, bringing policy catalysts for domestic EDA. GF Securities pointed out that advanced ceramic components (core structural parts for etching and thin-film deposition) have entered a critical window for localization alongside capacity expansion at 12-inch wafer fabs.
Wafer Fabrication: Jiwei’s Weekly Data Highlights shows SMIC’s global wafer foundry market share has climbed to No.3, closing in on Samsung. Global semiconductor sales in July surged 135.1% year-on-year. Advanced process capacity remains persistently tight; TSMC’s 3nm orders for NVIDIA and AMD are mostly booked through 2027, which directly motivates Qualcomm’s evaluation of dual suppliers.
Policy & Macro Environment: CME data shows the probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike in September has risen to 86.2% (42.9% probability of cumulative 50bp hikes by October). High-growth, high-valuation sectors face pressure before the rate hike is delivered. Domestic policies continue along the dual main lines of “computing power + self-reliance and controllability”. The 2026 China Computing Conference released the first inclusive computing service list to empower SMEs. Chinese teams achieved a landmark first by leading standards in the RISC-V ecosystem. On the geopolitical front, watch for cost-side disruptions as the shutdown of Saudi oil pipelines pushed WTI crude oil up by more than 2%.
Daily Investment Tips
1. The dual-supplier landscape for 2nm chips and capacity locking of advanced processes further reinforce the core theme of "rising manufacturing complexity". Segments for domestic substitution including advanced packaging, new technologies for optical interconnection/CPO, EDA and advanced ceramic components carry relatively higher certainty. Industrialization signals of emerging memory such as ferroelectric memory are worth monitoring.
2. Risks: First, multiple stocks in PCB/copper clad laminate and high-frequency materials driven by market rumors have issued clarifications (Kinwong, Ultrasound Electronics). Thematic capital faces withdrawal risks. Second, the probability of a Fed rate hike this week stands at 86%. If implemented, it will exert near-term pressure on the valuation anchor of high-valued semiconductor names in A-shares.
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