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TSMC confirmed it will raise wafer foundry prices by 3%–6% by process node starting January 2027, with the steepest hikes for 2nm and 3nm. Its 8-inch fabs operate above 100% capacity utilization, with order visibility stretching to 2030, further strengthening the seller’s pricing power.
Jiwei Net: The Regional Court Munich I in Germany ruled in the first instance that Micron infringes two 3D NAND patents held by Yangtze Memory Technologies and issued an injunction. This marks the first substantive injunction for YMTC’s global IP litigation campaign over the past nearly three years.
Jiwei Consulting’s 2026 Research Report on Semiconductor Equipment Localization: Global semiconductor equipment sales will reach USD 165.9 billion in 2026 (+23.2% YoY). The localization rate of installed equipment in mainland China stands at roughly 35% and is expected to surpass 40% in 2026. Lithography (<1%), coaters/developers (~6%), and metrology & inspection (5%–10%) remain key weak links.
Sources state China is investigating the use of Broadcom hardware in state-owned data centers to support domestic suppliers and reduce reliance on foreign AI infrastructure.
JPMorgan: Downspecing of HBM does not alter the fundamental tight supply. Bit demand for 2026–2028 will still register a CAGR of 63%; Samsung’s HBM4 output may at least double next year.
In-depth Analysis
Optical Communications / Optical Chips: Eoptolink stated on an investor interactive platform that its 1.6T optical modules have entered sustained volume ramp-up with accelerating shipment pace amid relatively tight supply chains. The company has secured inventory in advance via lock-in agreements and prepayments. Fuxin Technology disclosed that Micro TECs for 400G/800G optical modules are in mass shipment, while those for 1.6T are delivered in small batches; TEC products for CPO are undergoing sampling and verification (expected to have no material impact on 2026 revenue). Regarding reports that the US FCC drafted new import rules for data-center optical modules, Huagong Tech responded that no material impact has been seen for now and it will continue monitoring and prepare contingency plans. Per Jiwei Net, Elon Musk commented that China is expected to close its computing power gap within two to three years through advances in lithography and chip manufacturing.
Advanced Packaging & Testing：Jiwei Consulting’s report shows surging demand for AI chip testing has driven prosperity for back-end test equipment. Changchuan Technology and Huafeng Test & Control posted 125.7% and 112.6% YoY growth in attributable net profit in H1 2026 respectively; the equipment segment has moved from “order validation” to “earnings delivery”. Samsung plans to raise monthly outsourced cleaning volume for HBM process glass carriers from 20,000 wafers this year to 50,000 wafers next year (only 10,000/month last year), indicating at least doubling of HBM4 output next year, with rising demand for glass substrates and packaging materials. BOE’s glass-based packaging substrate pilot line (24-layer, over 100×100 mm) has been sent to customers for electrical performance verification post chip tape-out, targeting mass-production readiness in H1 2027.
SiC / Power Semiconductors: No major developments today. Recent catalysts including Taiwanese vendors such as Panjit and Semiconductor International planning another 10%–15% spot price hike in October, plus multiple rounds of price adjustments by Infineon, TI, ST and ON Semiconductor, have been covered in prior briefings. This week, track the implementation of October spot price increases and design-win progress for automotive-grade SiC main drives.
Memory & Compute Chips: JPMorgan released an HBM research note, arguing that HBM supply-demand balance will remain tight even with specification downgrades. Bit demand is projected to maintain a 63% CAGR during 2026–2028, sustaining upward pricing trends. BofA raised its 2030 global memory market forecast from USD 1.8 trillion to USD 2.0 trillion, forecasting a ~21% CAGR for DRAM/NAND sales from 2027 to 2030. Q3 average DRAM prices are set to rise 20%–30% QoQ, and NAND prices by over 15%. For YMTC, Counterpoint data shows its Q1 2026 revenue jumped nearly 445% YoY, lifting its global NAND market share to 13%, on par with Micron and SanDisk. On the computing side, Hygon Information launched the lightweight C86 architecture 1000-series CPUs for low-power, embedded and edge computing scenarios. The Xiaomi 18 Pro series is the world’s first to adopt Qualcomm’s 6th-generation Snapdragon 8 Elite, a 2nm flagship mobile platform.
Equipment & Materials: Jiwei Consulting’s 2026 Research Report on Semiconductor Equipment Localization cites SEMI projections: global semiconductor equipment sales will hit USD 165.9 billion in 2026 (+23.2% YoY), a record high, and may reach USD 229.5 billion by 2028. Mainland China’s equipment sales stood at approximately USD 49.3 billion in 2025, accounting for 36.5% of the global total and ranking first worldwide for six consecutive years; its global share will remain close to 30% in 2027. The localization rate of installed equipment has climbed from below 10% around 2020 to roughly 35% in 2025, and is expected to exceed 40% in 2026. Stripping reaches ~90%; cleaning, CMP, thermal processing and etching have achieved large-scale substitution. Thin-film deposition and ion implantation are ramping rapidly. Metrology & inspection (5%–10%), coaters/developers (~6%) and lithography (<1%) remain key bottlenecks. Naura’s 2025 revenue reached about USD 5.1 billion (+36% YoY), ranking 7th globally, with order backlog exceeding RMB 82 billion and production scheduling extending into Q1 2028. Piotech’s order book is booked through mid-2027.
Wafer Fabrication: Digitimes, citing supply chain sources, reports TSMC has confirmed adjusting Wafer Out prices by 3%–6% starting January 2027 by process node, with larger increases for advanced nodes such as 2nm/3nm. 8-inch fabs run above 100% capacity utilization, and nodes below 45nm are fully loaded, with order visibility stretching to 2030. TSMC has not commented on the news. For mature nodes, this aligns with UMC’s earlier warning of “meaningful price hikes” in 2027 and reported up-to-40% quotations hikes at Powerchip, reflecting improving price pass-through capability across foundries.
Policy & Macro Environment: Sources state China is investigating the deployment of Broadcom hardware in state-owned data centers, aiming to support domestic manufacturers and reduce reliance on foreign AI infrastructure. Macroeconomically, after US PMI data release, market probability for at least a 25bp Fed rate hike in October rose to roughly 75% (up from ~53%). The three major US stock indices closed lower (Nasdaq -1.13%), and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index extended intraday losses to 2% on September 23. On September 23, Hang Seng Indexes Company launched eight new indices including the Hang Seng Semiconductor Industry Index.
Daily Investment Tips
1. Equipment and back-end testing boast relatively high conviction. Driven by the global equipment upcycle and localization rate advancing toward 40%, capacity expansion in memory and advanced packaging delivers the strongest order visibility. Nevertheless, segments with low localization rates including lithography, coaters/developers, and metrology & inspection remain long-term challenges. Near-term earnings delivery is more concentrated within equipment and testing players.
2. Watch for elevated volatility across the memory chain. Michael Burry disclosed substantial increases in short positions on Micron, Nebius and semiconductor ETFs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fluctuates at historical highs. HBM downspecing and Fed tightening expectations may amplify valuation swings. Meanwhile, TSMC’s 2027 price hikes will raise costs for downstream design houses. Monitor whether price pass-through to end customers dampens demand.
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