Daily Semiconductor Investment Insight | July 23, 2026

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Anthropic is investing USD 5 billion in AMD to secure 2 GW of MI450 chips. The dual-supplier landscape for AI computing power is taking shape at an accelerated pace, posing substantive challenges to NVIDIA’s monopolistic position.

SK Hynix officially denied reports that it is negotiating to acquire Intel’s Ohio semiconductor campus. The multi-hundred-billion-yuan M&A rumor has faded, adding fresh uncertainty to Intel’s disposal roadmap for its foundry assets.

Supply crunch looms for upstream optical communication raw materials: the supply-demand gap for high-purity red phosphorus continues to widen. Domestic phosphorus chemical firms are ramping up competition for the core indium phosphide substrate track, with several players entering trial production and verification phases.

UBS: Demand visibility for ASML is “unusually long-term”. The company plans to raise EUV output by roughly 30% apiece in 2027 and 2028, further confirming the sustainability of the super-cycle for semiconductor equipment.

Q2 positioning of foreign public funds unveiled: optical modules, semiconductors and AI computing hardware constitute core allocation targets, sending clear signals of incremental capital inflows.

In-depth Analysis

Optical Communication & Optical Chips：Notable marginal changes have emerged in upstream materials. According to Cailian Press dated July 23, sustained rising demand for high-speed optical modules driven by AI data center construction has propagated to the uppermost end of the industrial chain. Supply-demand tensions are intensifying for electronic-grade high-purity red phosphorus (6N–7N), a core raw material for indium phosphide substrates. Over 80% of the global market share is concentrated in two Japanese suppliers: Nippon Chemical and Rasa Industries.

Domestically, phosphorus chemical enterprises based in Hubei, Guizhou and other regions have entered trial production and passed verification by indium phosphide substrate manufacturers. Listed firms including Xingfu Electronics have completed product development and moved to industrial validation. This development signals that bottlenecks within the optical chip chain are shifting from optical module assembly to upstream raw materials. The domestic substitution progress for indium phosphide substrates and high-purity red phosphorus will become a critical variable shaping supply elasticity across the optical communication sector.

Advanced Packaging：No major new updates today. ASE Group announced on July 1 a price hike of over 20% for CoWoS and FoCoS packaging services, with an estimated 10% supply-demand gap. Domestic players such as JCET and Ningbo SMT continue capacity expansion. News concerning Huike Co., Ltd.’s RMB 4 billion cross-industry investment in an advanced packaging project remains worthy of ongoing tracking.

SiC & Third-Generation Semiconductors：No major new updates today. Near-term focus remains on existing developments including trial production launch at Bosch’s first U.S. SiC semiconductor plant (total investment USD 2 billion) and secured bulk orders for domestic SiC substrate polishing slurry. The penetration pace and price trend of automotive-grade SiC will be key areas to monitor going forward.

Memory & Computing Chips：On July 22, SK Hynix officially denied market rumors that it was negotiating to acquire Intel’s New Albany semiconductor campus in Ohio, putting an end to speculation surrounding a multi-hundred-billion-yuan M&A deal. The development leaves uncertainty hanging over Intel’s plans to divest its foundry assets.

Separately, Anthropic struck a landmark partnership with AMD. Anthropic will invest USD 5 billion in AMD and purchase up to 2 GW of AMD’s latest-generation Instinct MI450 chips starting H1 2027. Following Amazon Trainium, this represents another substantial breakthrough for the dual-supplier ecosystem for AI inference chips and creates marginal challenges to NVIDIA’s dominant position in AI accelerator chips. Samsung Electronics confirmed on July 21 that it has commenced mass production of V10 NAND for NVIDIA with monthly output exceeding 100,000 wafers.

Semiconductor Equipment & Materials：Following an online roadshow with ASML’s CFO, UBS analysts stated ASML plans to ramp up EUV output by approximately 30% in 2027 and another 30% in 2028. Customers have placed substantial orders, delivering “unusually long-term” demand visibility. The view reinforces expectations for a sustained super-cycle in semiconductor equipment. Additionally, tight supply of high-purity red phosphorus will indirectly benefit domestic manufacturers of electronic-grade phosphorus chemical materials.

Policy & Macro Environment：A UNCTAD report estimates global merchandise trade volume reached roughly USD 13.7 trillion in H1 2026, rising 12.5% year-on-year. AI-related equipment, semiconductors and data center infrastructure acted as key growth engines.

Domestically, Q2 holdings of foreign public funds (BlackRock, Fidelity, Neuberger Berman, etc.) have been disclosed. Optical modules, semiconductors and AI computing hardware stand out as core allocation targets. Supported by valuation troughs in A-shares and earnings delivery from the technology thematic track, Chinese equity assets are gaining recognition for their medium-to-long-term allocation value.

Daily Investment Tips

1. The AMD-Anthropic partnership warrants close attention. The USD 5 billion investment coupled with a 2 GW chip procurement volume is substantial, signalling that major AI clients are systematically building a NVIDIA-independent dual-supplier framework. While NVIDIA’s leading position remains intact in the near term, the competitive landscape for AI chips is loosening over the medium to long run. Investors are advised to track marginal developments across AMD’s industrial chain and the custom ASIC track.

2. The upstream material bottleneck in optical communications merits vigilance. The widening shortage of high-purity red phosphorus indicates that bottlenecks along the optical module chain are shifting upstream. Progress in domestic substitution for indium phosphide substrates and high-purity red phosphorus will serve as a leading indicator for optical module supply elasticity in 2027–2028. It is recommended to closely monitor industrialization milestones of players such as Xingfu Electronics as well as capacity expansion plans of Japanese suppliers.

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