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US AI hardware stocks rallied collectively on September 17. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.14% (Arm +8%, Intel +7%, SanDisk/AMD +6%). Jensen Huang stated NVIDIA’s chip sales next year will double this year’s figure. Nebius announced GPU on-demand rental price hikes effective October 1: B300 up roughly 21% and H200 up 20%, jointly validating the supply-demand balance and rental pricing for computing power.
Huawei Connect 2026: The Ascend 960 chip is ready ahead of schedule with doubled performance. The 960DT is advanced to Q1 2027 and the 960PR to Q3 2027. The Ascend 960 supernode is the industry’s first supernode adopting NPO optical engines (Atlas 960 liquid cooling in Q3 2027, Atlas 860 air cooling in Q2 2027). Cumulative deployments of Ascend supernodes have exceeded 1,000 units.
The semiconductor material price hike wave spreads to photoresists. JSR, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo and Shin-Etsu Chemical will raise global photoresist prices by an overall 15% starting October 1. Long-term ArF contracts see a 16%–22% increase; immersion ArF for HBM sees a maximum hike of 24%; spot orders rise 32%–38%. Standard KrF grades increase by 9%–14%.
Upstream equipment components and back-end testing are also facing tight supply. Lead times for critical South Korean semiconductor equipment components have extended from 4 months to 10 months. Japanese components for laser processing equipment may have lead times as long as 40 months. Jingzhida plans to raise RMB 2.857 billion to industrialize memory test equipment.
Jiwei’s in-depth forecast: Global demand for analog chips for optical modules will exceed RMB 10 billion in 2026. Analog chip value per 800G module stands at USD 8–10, jumping to USD 16–20 for 1.6T. Domestic localization rate for TIA/Driver remains below 5%. In the 3.2T/NPO era, the value per module may reach 2–3 times that of the 800G solution.
In-depth Analysis
Optical Communications / Optical Chips: GlobalFoundries and Marvell announced expanded cooperation to ramp production of SiGe optical communication chips required for high-speed optical interconnects in AI data centers. The news pushed GlobalFoundries up more than 5% intraday and Marvell 6.5%. Overnight, Lumentum gained over 9% and Coherent rose more than 6%. Huawei Ascend 960 supernodes have confirmed adoption of the NPO architecture. Huafeng Technology, a core supplier of high-speed backplane connectors for Huawei, has its 6.4T NPO optical modules under technical verification. Jiwei’s in-depth analysis highlights that optical module analog chips (TIA, Driver, power management, AFE, EEPROM) represent the weakest link with the lowest localization rate across the optical module supply chain. The combined localization rate of DSP/TIA/Driver remains below 5%. For 10G and below access networks, domestic vendors occupy four of the top five positions. 3PEAK’s non-recurring net profit surged 617% in H1; its AFE products cover 400G/800G/1.6T and have entered key leading customers. For SG Micro, its networking and computing business accounts for roughly one quarter of total revenue, nearly doubling year-on-year. Youxun Semiconductor has taped out engineering wafers for single-channel 100G/200G products, with mass rollout targeted for 2027.
Advanced Packaging & Testing：Qizhong Technology broke ground on its Suzhou advanced packaging project on September 16. With fixed-asset investment of RMB 2.454 billion, the project focuses on high-end AI and high-performance computing applications. Jingzhida plans a private placement to raise a net RMB 2.846 billion, funding industrialization of semiconductor memory test equipment and an R&D center for high-end chip testing, signaling capacity expansion for back-end testing. Regarding ABF films and IC substrates, neither CLS.cn nor Jiwei released new updates on price hikes or supply changes today. The latest available reports on JSR still point to tightened supply to mainland China and prior price increases; no major new developments emerged today.
SiC / Power Semiconductors: At its investor briefing, Fangda Carbon stated that its 6N-grade graphite has been mass-delivered to leading manufacturers of optical fiber, silicon semiconductors and SiC semiconductors, replacing imported equivalents. The firm is also expanding into extended materials including ultra-high-purity isostatic graphite and semiconductor-grade high-purity carbon powder. CMB International initiated coverage of Hantec with a “Buy” rating and a target price of HKD 161.18. It projects adjusted net profit of RMB 310 million / 660 million / 1.11 billion for 2026–2028, driven mainly by 8-inch capacity ramp-up. No major new updates on sector pricing or automotive-grade adoption today.
Storage & Compute Chips: Huawei confirmed an annual product iteration cadence; Ascend 970 and 980 are scheduled for launch in 2028 and 2029 respectively. It also unveiled OceanStor M900 AI memory storage (PB-scale KV cache, SSD lifespan boosted by 16 times). Micron’s CEO stated its Sanand fab in India will reach packaging and test capacity for hundreds of millions of memory chips next year. Shannon Electronics noted stable cooperation with SK Hynix and expressed cautious optimism over memory pricing. Apple is reportedly planning an AI inference server codenamed Baltra, equipped with two custom M8 Ultra chips and potentially leveraging NVIDIA’s NVLink Fusion networking technology. Rising cloud computing rental prices (Nebius B300 +21%) further validate rigid demand.
Equipment & Materials: Photoresists have become the new segment hit by material price hikes (JSR / Tokyo Ohka Kogyo / Shin-Etsu, effective Oct 1). Lead times for Korean equipment components have more than doubled, with some Japanese parts extending up to 40 months, showing upstream capacity expansion lags behind the AI supercycle. On domestic materials, ESWIN Materials’ monthly shipments of 12-inch silicon wafers exceeded 1 million pieces. Corning announced price increases starting at 15%, and BOE plans to adjust display product pricing in Q4 2026, indicating persistent upward cost pressure upstream.
Wafer Fabrication: GlobalFoundries is expanding SiGe optical communication foundry capacity via its partnership with Marvell. AMD plans to establish its first Asia AI Excellence Center in South Korea by year-end. SMIC and Huahong released no new capacity or pricing announcements today. Southbound capital purchased HKD 600 million of SMIC shares on September 16.
Policy & Macro Environment:Japan and the US are negotiating to jointly build a semiconductor plant valued at 2–3 trillion yen, as part of their USD 550 billion investment plan. The Ministry of Commerce noted Chinese and US economic and trade teams maintain close communication on topics including tariff reductions. The Fed raised rates by 25bp on September 17 to 3.75%–4.00%. The median dot plot signals one more potential hike within the year. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains elevated at 5.033%. Japan’s export controls on strategic metals remain in place, strengthening the push for self-reliance and controllability.
Daily Investment Tips
1. The price-hike theme is spreading from memory, silicon wafers and copper clad laminates to fine chemicals such as photoresists. Volume-price elasticity continues to materialize in the materials segment. Still, it is necessary to track the implementation timeline of October price increase notices and downstream willingness (wafer fabs, panel makers) to absorb higher costs, and guard against execution risks where price hikes outpace demand growth.
2. Domestic computing power and optical interconnection constitute the highest-conviction portfolio at present. The Ascend 960 + NPO supernode reinforces the domestic optical interconnection roadmap. The localization rate of optical module electrical chips (TIA/Driver) remains below 5%, and their value doubles with speed upgrades, making this a low-base underpenetrated segment. Nevertheless, the sector has seen rapid short-term gains. Coupled with Fed rate hikes lifting risk-free rates, investors must watch for amplified volatility at elevated price levels.
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