Prev
Click the blue text and follow us
✦
JUMBO SHEEN
INVESTMENT
✦
Headlines
The Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike in the early hours of September 17, its first increase in three years. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.033%, and the 30-year yield surpassed 5.40%, both hitting highs since 2007. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.21% to its lowest level since mid-June. Nevertheless, capital flowed back into AI hardware names: Lumentum surged over 9%, Coherent rose more than 6%, while Marvell and Intel gained over 3%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 2% on September 16 at 11,409.91.
The supply-demand gap in memory continues to widen. Micron executives stated that meaningful new memory capacity will not start ramping until 2028, and no supply-demand balance is visible for now. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan noted memory prices have risen 5–7 times, with shortages set to worsen. SK Hynix is negotiating to lease Intel’s Ohio fab, which would mark its first domestic memory chip production in the United States.
Infineon announced the all-cash sale of its NOR flash and F-RAM specialty memory business to Winbond Electronics for USD 1.12 billion. The transaction is expected to close in H2 2027, accelerating consolidation across the memory industry.
According to Jiwei Consulting’s 2026 Memory Industry Research Report, the global memory market will reach USD 551.6 billion in 2026 and expand to USD 842.7 billion in 2027, representing a CAGR of 89.2% for 2025–2027. ChangXin Memory captured a 10% global DRAM market share in Q2, with HBM3 samples slated for mass production in 2026–2027. Yangtze Memory Technologies secured 13%–15% of the global NAND market, ranking third worldwide.
Upstream material price hikes coincide with domestic substitution. 12-inch silicon wafers have seen price increases of 5%–22% this year. Sustained price rises for electronic fabric, copper foil and CCL have forced PCB manufacturers to revise quotations. Jiangfeng Electronics supplies ultra-high-purity silicon targets, tungsten targets and copper-manganese alloy targets in volume, with qualifications from leading manufacturers, for use in HBM and advanced memory fabrication.
In-depth Analysis
Optical Communications / Optical Chips: CICC’s research report notes that the 27th CIOE outperformed prior editions in popularity (over 4,000 exhibitors and nearly 190,000 visitors, up 32% year-on-year). “Securing orders and materials” became the core theme. Some high-speed optical chip vendors have order backlogs extending into 2028 and beyond, while optical module order visibility stretches to 2027 and later. Advanced-process DSPs may emerge as the tightest bottleneck. It is projected that NPO will ramp up rapidly by 2028, CPO will gradually enter scale-up phase, and 400G per lane will bring thin-film lithium niobate into customer validation. Across the industrial chain, Shengyi Electronics disclosed that PCBs for 800G optical modules are in mass production; PCBs for 1.6T optical modules are under sampling and testing, and supporting products for 1.6T switches have entered small-batch mass production. Ultrasound Electronics clarified it supplies no products to NVIDIA, and its PCBs for 800G/1.6T optical modules remain under R&D. In the secondary market, CPO concept stocks trended upward amid volatility; Dongtianwei surged over 10% to a record high.
Advanced Packaging & Testing：Semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging stocks rallied sharply on September 16, spurred by Qipai Tech’s Q3 profit turnaround forecast. Qipai Tech and Zhenbao Technology once hit the 20cm daily limit. Huahai Qingke, Tuojing Technology and Changchuan Technology ranked among the top gainers. Since late August, upstream copper clad laminates, electronic fabric and copper foil have repeatedly raised factory prices, prompting PCB makers to revise quotations one after another. Huazheng New Materials closed at the daily limit on thin volume, notching seven consecutive positive daily candles. On the materials side, the supply-demand gap for 12-inch silicon wafers persists. China’s advanced packaging material market is expected to exceed RMB 172 billion in 2026. According to Jiwei Consulting, IDMs (Samsung, ChangXin Memory) and foundries (TSMC, SMIC) capture over 90% of the 2.5D/3D HBM packaging market share. JCET’s memory business revenue jumped 150% in H1 2025, and Tongfu Microelectronics is a core DRAM packaging supplier tied to ChangXin Memory.
SiC / Power Semiconductors: No major new updates today. Progress in equipment and materials: Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical stated its 6–8 inch SiC epitaxy equipment, oxidation furnaces and activation furnaces have achieved domestic substitution and hold leading market share. Its 8-inch SiC substrates have secured bulk orders at home and abroad. The first domestic 12-inch SiC substrate pilot line was officially energized in September 2026, featuring fully self-developed equipment with 100% localization across the whole process.
Storage & Compute Chips: Beyond memory price and supply-demand updates, Jiwei Consulting estimates China’s memory market at roughly USD 100 billion in 2026, accounting for 18% of the global total. Registrations of Chinese memory chip firms spiked 41.4% year-on-year in 2025, and the enterprise SSD market will deliver a CAGR of 22.7% from 2024 to 2029. On the computing side, Huawei unveiled the world’s first 3D data center at the 2026 Wuhu AIDC Industry Development Conference. It adopts a four-layer vertically stacked architecture (cooling infrastructure, IT hardware including AI supernodes, power distribution layer and rooftop backup batteries), targeting gigawatt-scale AI infrastructure.
Equipment & Materials: Jiangfeng Electronics stated its ultra-high-purity silicon targets, tungsten targets and copper-manganese alloy targets are shipped in volume and qualified by leading semiconductor players globally, deployed in HBM and advanced memory chip manufacturing. Its products have entered the 3nm supply chain, and the company ranked No.1 globally in sputtering target shipments in 2024. It plans a private placement to raise RMB 1.948 billion for expanding production of ultra-high-purity metal sputtering targets and core equipment components. Jinhaitong intends to issue convertible bonds of up to RMB 850 million for semiconductor test equipment capacity expansion and R&D. Photoresist firm Tongcheng New Materials passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing.
Wafer Fabrication: No major updates today. Southbound capital bought approximately HKD 600 million of SMIC shares on September 16.
Policy & Macro Environment: The Fed delivered its first 25bp rate hike in three years. Chair Walsh reiterated inflation remains too high and persistent. Long-end US Treasury yields hit 2007 highs, weighing on high-valuation tech assets. Industrial policy support continues to intensify: memory enterprises with feature sizes below 28nm enjoy a ten-year corporate income tax exemption. The 3rd phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund has raised over RMB 300 billion, focusing on memory chips, advanced processes and semiconductor equipment.
Daily Investment Tips
1. Memory stands as the most definitive core theme in this cycle. Memory manufacturers confirmed that meaningful new capacity will not ramp until 2028. The price hike and supply shortage pattern may persist. Focus on memory modules, packaging & testing (JCET, Tongfu Microelectronics, Unisem) and the domestic memory supply chain. Still, watch for valuation compression risks amid the high-interest-rate environment.
2. Upstream materials (12-inch silicon wafers, electronic fabric/CCL, sputtering targets, packaging substrates) are seeing concurrent price increases and domestic substitution, representing segments with strong earnings elasticity at present. Key validation metrics include the timing of formal price increase notices and transmission effect of revised quotations from downstream PCB manufacturers.
Jumbo Sheen FundDisclaimer:The content involved in this article is for sharing and exchange purposes only, and shall not be construed as investment advice. It is provided merely for readers' reference. All copyrights of the quoted content belong to the original authors. If any infringement is found, please contact us for removal.
